The Commodity Shock

Inflation has been a problem for the U.S. economy for more than a year. In the past six months or so, that problem has become obvious to everyone because it has been particularly focused on food and energy. In mid-June, the Federal Reserve lifted overnight interest rates by 0.75% in an effort to crimp demand […]

A New Cold War

When the Soviet flag was lowered on December 25th, 1991, the world entered a new era. The ideological battle between capitalism and communism was largely set aside and countries turned their attention to expanding their economies. Open borders, cheap labor, and falling transportation costs encouraged companies to invest their capital where it could get the […]


The year just ending witnessed the continuation of the economic recovery from the pandemic-induced recession. Massive fiscal and monetary stimulus boosted demand, and U.S. economic growth continued at an above-trend pace. However, the ability to supply this demand was impaired by issues ranging from shipping and other transportation challenges to finding enough workers to staff […]

Assessing the Housing Market in 2021

Over the past 15 years, housing in America has gone from boom, to bust, and back to a boom again. Coming off the COVID-19 recession last year, median U.S. home prices have risen steadily, increasing 28% over the last two years alone. This upswing is no new phenomenon. Home prices have been appreciating ever since […]

Viewing the World from a New Lens … Inflation

As the United States recovers from the COVID-19 pandemic, we are increasingly hearing a word that some had thought was practically extinct: inflation. After the Great Inflation of the 1970s and early 1980s, the country saw over 30 years where inflation had not been a problem. Suddenly, rising prices are a significant concern for many. […]

Electric Dreams

The year 2020 will be remembered for many things, including a meteoric rise in clean energy stocks. As they have come off their highs, we felt the time was right to assess the state of green investments. With many countries setting targets for economy-wide carbon neutrality and many car companies targeting the elimination of internal […]


The year just ending was unique in the life of nearly every American. One of the worst pandemics to hit the world since the influenza of 1918 was not even on the radar screen a year ago at this time, then swept over the landscape with stunning speed. Debates about how long the economic and […]

A Tale of Two Markets

“Congratulations. I knew the record would stand until it was broken” – Yogi Berra One of the strangest aspects of this year’s stock market behavior is not the fact that the S&P 500 index dropped as much as it did in March, but that it reached a new high barely five months later, at a […]


As the world struggles with the COVID-19 pandemic, the economic shocks created by widespread shutdowns have laid bare the risks of the globalized economy. In the post-Cold War era, borders opened, transportation became cheaper, and the Internet transformed communications. These changes encouraged companies across the developed world to move factories to countries with cheaper labor, […]

Looking Across the Valley

In the few weeks since we last wrote about the coronavirus situation and its impact on the stock and bond markets, a lot has changed. The stock market dropped firmly into bear market territory. Bond yields and even gold prices have been whipsawed around, indicating that at times the only thing some investors seem to […]